Environmental Leadership and the way forward

The situation is clear: we have not  convincingly addressed the climate debate

In the race to rubbish Copenhagen we should perhaps recognise that in the real world solving any problem is complex. The initial emotional reaction to the frustration is to condemn our political leaders out of hand for their narrowness, self-interest and lack of vision. It most certainly is better that the resolution of the climate summit is not perceived as a significant progression. Painful as it may be, we are clearly not deceived by a smoke and mirrors, politicians’ spun version.

Even if Copenhagen had been genuinely successful, we still could not change events for the next forty years 

Our energy policies of the last three decades dictate, even if we achieved Zero Carbon today, events would not change perceptibly for the next four decades.

What we need to avert is reaching the tipping point of climate change, nominally 3 degrees, whereupon we may experience a free fall or utterly unpredictable potential collapse of all previously modelled outcomes.

All is not lost by the Copenhagen decisions, but it may take  a natural disaster of unimaginable magnitude to refocus international opinion rather than rational debate.

It is vital that measured, scientific opinion continues to gather the growing evidence and that a scientific breakthrough, as yet not discovered, might mitigate our inability to resolve matters by reasoned behaviour change.

Copenhagen is not a failure that should be  minimised

Our inaction will  have terrible consequences. History, however, demonstrates that change will take place and the probability is that human existence will continue. For some  nation states, communities and individuals the consequences will be disastrous. It would be a very conceited person who assumed that they or their particular self-interest would not be affected adversely.

It might not affect you but it will effect tens of millions and some of those people will ask WHY did we allow this to happen?

EXCUSES

Get your excuses ready  if you must, but they won’t change what you have enabled, unless we address the problems of climate and consumption today with even more vigour and determination. No Excuses.

Confusion or Conspiracy? A question of political will.

Events in East Anglia fuel the great debate

The events in East Anglia as they unfold have a double purpose for the delegates in Copenhagen. They may be a distraction from the central issues, either intentionally or accidentally, that provide conspiracy theorists and tabloids with much material to discuss, whilst more rationally they have  generated the much overdue opportunity for intensifying considered debate.

We depend upon accurate scientific data for endorsement and confirmation of policy and for ‘breakthrough‘ in resolution of problems that at any fixed point in time seem impenetrable without technological advance.

Cause & Effect: the politics of science and the consequences

Scientists did not take the decision to drop the first atom bombs, they enabled the political elite of the Western powers to exercise previously unimaginable force. The ability to understand nuclear physics was enabled by political resolution to bring together the best scientific research and resource the work with facilities and the determination to succeed. Thereby achieving their political purpose with considerable  strategic urgency.

The moral dilemma followed as the realisation of consequence registered in the aftermath.

Scientific evidence for climate consumption

Setting aside that all simplistic metaphors collapse under extended scrutiny, the parallel for today’s climate debate with the  creation and  commissioning of atomic weapons offers a useful illustration for the twenty first century’s great debate .

If the distraction of the media frenzy about periferal issues is ignored, then we should call on our politicians to act with clear political conviction. Sufficient credible scientific information exists to confirm that the world’s natural resources are being consumed in an unsustainable manner. The climate debate is intrinsically part of the discussion about consumption and the environmental consequences of profligate use of Earth’s resources.

Political good intentions with cataclysmic results

At the equivalent point in the second Great European war (1940-45), confronted by the uncertainty of victory in Europe and fearing the Japanese military determination to fight on, the allies persuaded and facilitated the escape from Europe of the scientist who came to be the scientific elite that enabled the succesful Oppenheim/Manhattan project to deliver the weapons of absolute destruction that incinerated Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Without resolution and political will these  cataclysmic events could not have been resourced.

As a young man in the 1960′s, I met East German and Czech scientists who claimed that the nuclear projects of LOS ALAMOS could  never have been sustained without the broad base of scientific knowledge that the allies enjoyed and the Nazis could not obtain from their narrow science base, denied by the  allies  ‘spiriting away’ talent from occupied Europe.

It is time for another brave political decision – before we run out of time

I do not choose to venerate a decision that I privately find morally difficult to defend from the comfort of a new century, but rather to recognise that the events that confront us today may similarly not be resolvable without broad international co-operation and determined political will. Furthermore, resourced with more urgency than we have yet deployed. 

In the present context the greater problem, and parallel, remains the issue of political judgement in the light of conflicting forces that may provoke a fatal hesitation.

If climate change is as advanced and critical as most scientific opinion believes, then those in denial are not exercising a responsible democratic judgement but rather an obstructive and potentially lethal distraction, even if they are sincere.

MASCo adds its voice to the United Nations debate

 

Steve Tomlin’s blog goes to the Copenhagen Conference

Many of you have kindly read MASCo MD, Steve Tomlin’s post today: Better A Failure in Copenhagen 

Now you can read it on the United Nations COP 15 website where Steve’s blog has been included in Climate Thoughts, an interactive globe showcasing different climate opinions and thoughts from well-known climate debaters.

Click on the link below to access the globe, then click Show The Latest Published Thoughts. Better A Failure in Copenhagen should appear, until a new flurry of thoughts are posted.